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By Birgit Matthiesen
Canadians hold dear the notion of a “special relationship” with our neighbour. But with all the headlines coming out of Washington lately, one might wonder if we still recognize the neighbour we thought we knew. America seems to have changed before our very eyes and evolved into something we no longer recognize. How did that happen?
The past decades have been kind to the neighbourhood. In the early 90s, we formed a trade pact that launched hundreds of business opportunities and cemented what we thought would be a future of economic integration and shared profits. And for many years, that was true. We thought the US and Canada — and yes, even eventually Mexico — would form Fortress North America. We had it all: an abundance of energy, stable governments, vibrant consumer demand, an innovative workforce and modern roadways that would deliver all this productive activity.
The future looked bright.
We in Canada still rely on the US market for more than 80 per cent of our product sales. We still pride ourselves on the fact that we deliver to our neighbour an abundant and reliable energy supply and we still send some of our best and brightest actors and athletes to play on their home teams.
But yet, something tells us the ‘hood has changed. We're not sure how it has changed or when it changed, but change it did.
It would be easy to point the finger on the events of 9/11, but that would be too simplistic. While arguably security has trumped trade over the past decade, we still can't figure out how the world's longest "undefended border" became so "thickened." Surely we are not the country that keeps the midnight oil burning in Langley?
But we are. Not just Canada, but every country. The border, for Americans, is their first and last line of safety. So if you are on the other side of that border, you are suspect until proven otherwise. If you are a traveller, you are vetted, regardless of the maple leaf on your backpack. If you are a widget in a box in a truck heading to the Peace Bridge, you are held up until every piece of information about every component part is sent to a myriad of US border agencies and "approved" for entry.
Now, before you howl your outrage, please know that all of this applies equally to every other traveller or product approaching US shores. No one gets a free pass — not even reliable and dependable Canada.
America in 2012 will not be the America we knew in 2002. Today, its retail shelves are filled with products mostly made and built across the ocean. American consumers have become price savvy and product skeptic. Moreover, they are burdened with the hard reality of having to choose between the need to pay the lowest price regardless of product origin and an entrenched sense of economic patriotism urging them to buy homegrown.
Make it in America, buy it in America — not North America.
But surely sophisticated legislators and political leaders in Washington understand that Canada is not like any other trading partner. We are the good guys, no? Why then treat us like everyone else?
The White House decision to punt final approval for the Keystone pipeline should give us pause. As Ambassador Doer correctly put it, "If the decision is based on merit, it will go ahead. If the decision is based on noise, it's unpredictable." Well, we saw what happened. Apparently, the largest energy supplier is no longer needed, or maybe just needed sometime in the future.
What happened to the welcome wagon? It's parked in a dusty shed outside of Detroit.
In November 2012, Americans will go to the polling booth. Up for grabs is the Oval Office, leadership in both chambers of Congress as well as 13 State Houses. After two years of partisan bickering and legislative gridlock, many here in the United States hope for the re-emergence of strong national leadership to guide the country through the economic turmoil roiling the world. They yearn for the return of American leadership, of "American exceptionalism." We all do. In fact, in Canada, we depend on it as we always have.
The campaign season will pit elephant against donkey, same banners and same dividing lines. Democrats like big government and Republicans are the party of free markets and open trade. That is certainly how we have always seen them. Nightly newscasts will show electoral maps of blue states and red states.
But where did the colour purple come from? And how did tea become the new political flavour?
What's a neighbour to make of all this? Why paint the house a different colour, dim the lights and build a higher fence?
Who is this "new" neighbour and who will answer the front door when we come knocking?
The answer is we don't know — yet. The neighourhood is in flux. National leadership is nowhere to be seen. In this vacuum, regions in the US are left holding the bag. Decisions on such critical issues as energy policy are being taken by obscure agencies such as something called CARB, or California Air Resources Board. Sacramento has become the new "go to" place for K Street lobbyists.
So America is changing. But surely all those folks from states along our border still understand us. Won't they rally on behalf of the ‘hood? The answer is yes but not so much.
Detroit could be bankrupt this spring. That pretty much says it all. If you are a mayor, state senator or governor and your region is battling double-digit unemployment figures, you are going to champion good old protectionism in all forms and all colours. Even if there is a break in the political noise and serious discussion turns to trade, these same local leaders will think China, not Canada. They will think exports, not "integration." This is not to say they do not see the opportunities to their north. It's just that the future seems shinier abroad.
Right now, Americans want job creation, pure and simple. If that means back-breaking work re-paving highways so be it. If it means those same highways will ultimately be more expensive if "foreign" goods are banned, then so be it. If Buy America saves Detroit then, well, Buy America is sound public policy.
Things will turn around and the economy will spring back. Hopefully, so will thoughtful thinking in the halls of Congress. Eventually, neighbours will come out again and talk over the fence. We may even replace the fence with a hedge. And when that happens, the old neighbourhood will look like it once did, maybe even a little better and with a lot less noise.
